Abstract
Son yıllarda nüfus artışı, kentleşme, atık su kullanım politikaları,
sanayileşme ve iklim değişikliği nedeniyle su kirliliği su kaynaklarının
yeniden değerlendirilmesi konusunu gündeme getirmiştir. Geçmişte geliştirilen
koruma planlarının geçerliliğini yitirmesi nedeniyle, bugün yapılan yeni önlem
planları kritik analizler gerektirmektedir. Bu araştırmada, Türkiye’nin Orta
Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde yeralan Göller Bölgesi aylık yağış verileri incelenmiştir.
Bu amaçla verilere homojenlik testi uygulandıktan sonra, Mann Kendall testi,
Sen testi ve lineer regresyon analizi uygulanmıştır. Tarihi aylık yağış
kayıtlarınıntrendanalizi, çalışma alanında belirlenen Ağlasun, Barla, Aksu,
Bucak, Yalvaç, Sütçüler, Kızılkaya, Kasımlar ve Gelendost meteoroloji
istasyonları için yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, tarihi yağış kayıtlarının sonuçlarını
desteklemek için bu istasyonların 3, 6, 9, 12 aylık Standart Yağış İndeksi
(SYİ) metodu ile elde edilmiş kuraklık serilerinin trend analizleri de, Mann
Kendall testi, Sen testi ve lineer regresyonu kullanılarak incelenmiştir.
Uygulanantestlerin sonuçlarına göre, dokuz istasyonun çoğunda azalma eğilimi
gözlenmiştir.
References
- [1]. Türkes M.Climate Change: The Relations Framework Convention for Climate Change of Turkey and Climate Change Policy. The TUBITAK Vision 2023: The Technology Foresight Project, Science and Technology Strategies, The Environment and Sustainable Development Panel and the Report of Vision and Foresight, 2002;October, Ankara (in Turkish).
- [2]. Türkeş M. The Relations Framework Convention for Climate Change of Turkey. The access address: http://www.meteor.gov.tr/2003/arge/iklimdegis/iklimdegis10.htm. 2003 (in Turkish) (accessed 14 Jun 2017)
- [3]. Ediger V.Ş. The Size of International Relations of Global Climate Change and Policies of Turkey. Mülkiye, 32-259 (2008) 133–158 (in Turkish).
- [4]. Kalaycı S. Kahya E. Detection of Water Quality Trends in the Rivers of the Susurluk Basin. J. of Engineering and Environmental Science, 22 (1998) 503-514.
- [5]. Şen Z. The Climate Change and Its Effect On Water Resources. The World Water Day, March 22, The Panel of The Climate Change Impacts on Water and Energy Resources, 2005. (in Turkish).
- [6]. Helsel D.R., Hirsch R.M. Statistical Methods in Water Resources.Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey Book 4, Hydrologic Analysis and Interpretation Elsevier, 1992.
- [7]. Keskin M.E., Taylan E.D. and Aslanbaş T. An Investigation of Water Potential of Lake Eğirdir. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 15 (2015) 244-248.
- [8]. Serrano A., Mateos V.L., Garcia J.A. Trend Analysis of Monthly Precipitation Over the Iberian Peninsula fort the period 1921-1995.Phys. Chem. Earth (B), 24-1,2 (1999) U-90.
- [9]. Türkeş M. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Annual Rainfall Variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16 (1996) 1057–1076.
- [10]. Gan Y.T. Hydroclimatic Trends and Possible Climatic Warming in the Canadian Praires. Water Resources, 34-11 (1998) 3009–3015.
- [11]. Topaloğlu F., Tülücü K., Cetin M., Yücel A. The Statistical Preliminary Analysis of Some Hydrological Data and Applications. The Journal of The Agriculture Faculty of The Çukurova University, 12-4 (1997) 21–30 (in Turkish).
- [12]. Yue S., Wang C.Y. Regional Streamflow Trend Detection with Consideration of Both Temporal and Spatial Correlation. International Journal of Climatology, 22 (2002) 933-946.
- [13]. Yue S., Hashino M. Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39-3 (2003) 587- 596.
- [14]. Rahmat S.N., Jayasuriya N., Bhuiyan M. Trend Analysis of Drought Using Satndardised Precipitation Index (SPI) in Victoria, Australia. 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium November, Sydney, Australia, (2012) 19-22
- [15]. Jha S., Seghal V., Raghava R. Spatio-temporal Trends of Standardized Precipitation Index for Meteorological Drought Analysis across Agroclimatic Zones of India. National Symposium on Advances in Weather and Climate Services TROPMET. 20 May Kolkata, India, 2010.
- [16]. Campara P., Morales M. Trend analysis by a piecewise linear regression model applied to surface air temperatures in Southeastern Spain, Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss, (2016).
- [17]. Rehman S. Long-Term Wind Speed Analysis and Detection of its Trends Using Mann–Kendall Test and Linear Regression Method. Arab. J. Sci. Eng., 38 (2013) 421–437.
- [18]. Bacanlı Ü.G.Trend analysis of precipitationanddrought in the Aegeanregion, Turkey. Meteorol. Appl. 24 (2017) 239–249.
- [19]. Keskin M.E., Terzi Ö., Taylan E.D. The Meteorological Drought Analysis of Isparta Region. 1.The Turkey Climate Changes Congress, (2007) 350-359 (in Turkish).
- [20]. Gibbons R.D., Coleman D.E. Statistical Methods for Detection and Quantification of Environmental Contamination,2001.387.
- [21]. DeLurgio Stephen A. Forecasting principles and Applications. Mc-Grow-Hill New York,1998.
- [22]. Mckee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J. The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to time Scales. Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993.17-22 January Anaheim, California.
- [23]. Keskin M.E., Terzi Ö., Taylan D., Küçükyaman D. Meteorological drought analysis using data-driven models for the Lakes District, Turkey. Hydrol. Sci. J., 54-6 (2009) 1114–1124.
Abstract
In recent years, population growth, urbanization, tainted water use
policies, water pollution due to industrialization and climate change has led
to the re-evaluation of water resources. Because the protection plans developed
in the past have lost their validity, the new prevention plans made today have
caused to the critical analysis. In this research, the monthly precipitation
data was analyzed for Lakes Region located in the Middle Mediterranean Regionin
Turkey. For this purpose, the data were subjected to homogeneity test, and the
Mann Kendall test, the Sen’s test and the lineer regression for trend analysis
were applied to data. The analyses for historical monthly precipitation records
were made to nine meteorological stations which identified in the study area:the Ağlasun, Barla,
Aksu, Bucak, Yalvaç, Sütçüler, Kızılkaya, Kasımlar, and Gelendost stations. Also, 3, 6,
9, 12 monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values of these stations
were examined by using the Mann Kendall test, Sen’s test and lineer regression
to support historical trend analysis. According to the results of the tests, a
decreasing trend has been observed in most of the nine stations.
References
- [1]. Türkes M.Climate Change: The Relations Framework Convention for Climate Change of Turkey and Climate Change Policy. The TUBITAK Vision 2023: The Technology Foresight Project, Science and Technology Strategies, The Environment and Sustainable Development Panel and the Report of Vision and Foresight, 2002;October, Ankara (in Turkish).
- [2]. Türkeş M. The Relations Framework Convention for Climate Change of Turkey. The access address: http://www.meteor.gov.tr/2003/arge/iklimdegis/iklimdegis10.htm. 2003 (in Turkish) (accessed 14 Jun 2017)
- [3]. Ediger V.Ş. The Size of International Relations of Global Climate Change and Policies of Turkey. Mülkiye, 32-259 (2008) 133–158 (in Turkish).
- [4]. Kalaycı S. Kahya E. Detection of Water Quality Trends in the Rivers of the Susurluk Basin. J. of Engineering and Environmental Science, 22 (1998) 503-514.
- [5]. Şen Z. The Climate Change and Its Effect On Water Resources. The World Water Day, March 22, The Panel of The Climate Change Impacts on Water and Energy Resources, 2005. (in Turkish).
- [6]. Helsel D.R., Hirsch R.M. Statistical Methods in Water Resources.Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey Book 4, Hydrologic Analysis and Interpretation Elsevier, 1992.
- [7]. Keskin M.E., Taylan E.D. and Aslanbaş T. An Investigation of Water Potential of Lake Eğirdir. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 15 (2015) 244-248.
- [8]. Serrano A., Mateos V.L., Garcia J.A. Trend Analysis of Monthly Precipitation Over the Iberian Peninsula fort the period 1921-1995.Phys. Chem. Earth (B), 24-1,2 (1999) U-90.
- [9]. Türkeş M. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Annual Rainfall Variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16 (1996) 1057–1076.
- [10]. Gan Y.T. Hydroclimatic Trends and Possible Climatic Warming in the Canadian Praires. Water Resources, 34-11 (1998) 3009–3015.
- [11]. Topaloğlu F., Tülücü K., Cetin M., Yücel A. The Statistical Preliminary Analysis of Some Hydrological Data and Applications. The Journal of The Agriculture Faculty of The Çukurova University, 12-4 (1997) 21–30 (in Turkish).
- [12]. Yue S., Wang C.Y. Regional Streamflow Trend Detection with Consideration of Both Temporal and Spatial Correlation. International Journal of Climatology, 22 (2002) 933-946.
- [13]. Yue S., Hashino M. Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39-3 (2003) 587- 596.
- [14]. Rahmat S.N., Jayasuriya N., Bhuiyan M. Trend Analysis of Drought Using Satndardised Precipitation Index (SPI) in Victoria, Australia. 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium November, Sydney, Australia, (2012) 19-22
- [15]. Jha S., Seghal V., Raghava R. Spatio-temporal Trends of Standardized Precipitation Index for Meteorological Drought Analysis across Agroclimatic Zones of India. National Symposium on Advances in Weather and Climate Services TROPMET. 20 May Kolkata, India, 2010.
- [16]. Campara P., Morales M. Trend analysis by a piecewise linear regression model applied to surface air temperatures in Southeastern Spain, Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss, (2016).
- [17]. Rehman S. Long-Term Wind Speed Analysis and Detection of its Trends Using Mann–Kendall Test and Linear Regression Method. Arab. J. Sci. Eng., 38 (2013) 421–437.
- [18]. Bacanlı Ü.G.Trend analysis of precipitationanddrought in the Aegeanregion, Turkey. Meteorol. Appl. 24 (2017) 239–249.
- [19]. Keskin M.E., Terzi Ö., Taylan E.D. The Meteorological Drought Analysis of Isparta Region. 1.The Turkey Climate Changes Congress, (2007) 350-359 (in Turkish).
- [20]. Gibbons R.D., Coleman D.E. Statistical Methods for Detection and Quantification of Environmental Contamination,2001.387.
- [21]. DeLurgio Stephen A. Forecasting principles and Applications. Mc-Grow-Hill New York,1998.
- [22]. Mckee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J. The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to time Scales. Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993.17-22 January Anaheim, California.
- [23]. Keskin M.E., Terzi Ö., Taylan D., Küçükyaman D. Meteorological drought analysis using data-driven models for the Lakes District, Turkey. Hydrol. Sci. J., 54-6 (2009) 1114–1124.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Engineering Sciences |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | March 16, 2018 |
| Submission Date | July 17, 2017 |
| Acceptance Date | March 13, 2018 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2018 |