Advanced Machine Learning Strategies for Effective Rare Event Classification: A Comparative Study

Olcay Alpay

doi:10.17776/csj.1605507

EN TR

Advanced Machine Learning Strategies for Effective Rare Event Classification: A Comparative Study

Abstract

As data science and machine learning continue to evolve, binary event classification has become increasingly important. Logistic Regression (LR) is a standard baseline, yet it can underestimate probabilities in rare-event settings. This study combines a 16-scenario simulation (rarity 5–10%, n∈ {1000,5000}, p∈ {3,5,7,10}, 100 repeats) with a real-world application to assess Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting (GB) as alternatives to LR. Training data were balanced using the SMOTETomek hybrid method. In simulation, LR attained the highest balanced performance (G_mean) across cases, with GB the closest competitor; SVM lagged, and RF yielded the lowest G_mean despite often leading test accuracy and precision. On a wine dataset adjusted to 5% and 10% rarity, RF/GB achieved top test accuracy/recall (e.g., ACC=0.998/0.997 with REC=0.958/0.989 at 5% and ACC=0.998/0.994 with REC=0.989/0.977 at 10%), mirroring their strong aggregate accuracy. Overall, the “best” model depends on the target metric: LR/GB when balanced minority–majority performance is critical, and RF when overall accuracy/precision is prioritized.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Statistical Data Science

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Olcay Alpay ^*
0000-0003-1446-0801
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 30, 2025

Submission Date

December 22, 2024

Acceptance Date

December 24, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 46 Number: 4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17776/csj.1605507

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA82AL62MK

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RIS / Bibtex

APA

Alpay, O. (2025). Advanced Machine Learning Strategies for Effective Rare Event Classification: A Comparative Study. Cumhuriyet Science Journal, 46(4), 990-1002. https://doi.org/10.17776/csj.1605507

Advanced Machine Learning Strategies for Effective Rare Event Classification: A Comparative Study

Advanced Machine Learning Strategies for Effective Rare Event Classification: A Comparative Study

Abstract

Keywords

Etkili Nadir Olay Sınıflandırması için Gelişmiş Makine Öğrenimi Stratejileri: Karşılaştırmalı Bir Çalışma

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Anahtar Kelimeler

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