Öz
Yerel alanlara ilişkin tahminler yapmak için geliştirilmiş özel yöntemlere ihtiyaç duyulur. Bu yöntemlerin her biri incelenen konu, veri türü, problemin yapısı gibi etkenlere göre değişiklik gösterir ve farklı uygulama alanlarına sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, yerel alan kavramının açıklaması yapıldıktan sonra, yerel alanlarda kullanılan doğrudan ve dolaylı tahmin ediciler, varsayımları, yöntemleri ve gereksinim duydukları veri türü ile anlatılmıştır. Daha sonra, bir örnek uygulama olarak sentetik tahmin yöntemi ile Muğla ili işsizlik oranı tahmini elde edilmiş ve elde edilen sonuçların yorumu yapılmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Yerel Alan Tahminleri Alan Araştırmaları Lokal Tahmin Ediciler Küçük Alanlar
Kaynakça
- Bogue, D. J., 1950. A Technique for Making Extensive Population Estimates. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 45, 149-163.
- Bogue, D. J., Duncan, B. D., 1959. A Composite Method for Estimating Postcensal Population of Small Areas By Age, Sex and Colour, National Office of Vital Statistics, Vital-Statistics-Special Report, 47, No.6.
- Dalenius, T., 1987. Panel Discussion in Small Area Statistics, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
- Ericksen, E. P., 1971. A Method for Combining Sample Survey Data and Symptomatic Indicators to Obtain Estimates for Local Areas, Ph. D. Thesis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
- Ericksen, E. P., 1978. A Regression Method for Estimation Population Changes for Local Areas, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69, 867-875.
- Gonzalez, M. E., 1973. Use and Evaluation of Synthetic Estimates. Proceedings at the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 87, 533-540.
- Gonzalez, M. E., 1979. Case Studies on the Use and Accuracy of Synthetic Estimates: Unemployment and Housing Applications in Synthetic Estimates for Small Areas National Institute on Drug Abuse, Research Monograph 24, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- Gonzalez, M. E., Hoza, C., 1978. Small Area Estimation with Application to Unemployment and Housing Estimates. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 73, 7-15.
- Holt, D., Smith, T. M. F., Tomberlin, T.J., 1979. A Model Based Approach to Estimation for Small Subgroups of a Population. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 405-410.
- Kalton, G., 1987. Panel Discussion in Small Area Statistics. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
- Kish, L., 1987. Statistical Design for Research. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1987.
- Laake, P., 1979. A Prediction Approach to Subdomain Estimation in Finite Populations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 355-358.
- Levy, P.S., 1971. The Use of Mortality Data in Evaluating Synthetic Estimates. 1971 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 328-33.
- NCHS, 1968. Synthetic State Estimates of Disability PHS Publication No. 1759, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- NIDA, 1979. Synthetic Estimates for Small Areas Research Monograph 24, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- Nicholls, A., 1977. A Regression Approach to Small Area Estimation. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, Australia, March Mimeographed.
- Purcell, N. J., Kish, L., 1979. Estimation for Small Domains. Biometrics, 35, June, 365-384.
- Purcell, N. J., Kish, L., 1980. Postcensal Estimates for Local Areas or Domains. International Statistical Review, 48, 3-18.
- Rao, J. N. K., 2003. Small Area Estimation. John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey.
- Rives, N. W., 1976. A Modified Housing Unit Method for Small Area population Estimation. Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 717-720.
- Royall, R. A., 1973. Discussion of Papers by Gonzalez and Ericksen. Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 42-43.
- Särndal, C. E., 1984. Design-Consistent versus Model-Dependent Estimation for Small Domains, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 624-631.
- Särndal, C. E., 1993. Small Area Statistics and Survey Designs, International Scientific Conference. Volume II. Contributed Papers and Panel Discussion. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
- Starsinic, D. E., 1974. Development of Population Estimates for Revenue Sharing Areas, Census Tract Papers. Series GE 40, No.10, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- Swanson, D. A., 2009. The Methods and Materials Used to Generate Two Key Elements of the Housing Unit Method of Population Estimation: Vacancy Rates (VR) and Persons Per Household (PPH). Working Paper 09-03, Blakely Center for Sustainable Suburban Development, University of California Riverside.
- U.S Bureau of The Census, 1947. Population-Special Reports, Series P-47, No. 4, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- U.S. Bureau of The Census, 1969. Estimates of the Population of Counties and Metropolitan Areas, July 1, 1966: A Summary Report, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 427, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- U.S. Bureau of The Census, 1975a. Population Estimates and Projection, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 580, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- U.S. Bureau of The Census, 1975b. The Methods and Materials of Demography, Third Printing, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- United Nations, 1950. The Preparation of Sampling Survey Reports, Statistical Papers, Series C, No:1.
Öz
Special methods are needed to make estimations about local areas. These methods differ from each other according to some factors such as the subject, type of data, and the structure of the problem. They also have different areas of application. In this paper, after explaining the local area concept, the direct and indirect estimators used in local areas are given with their assumptions, methods, and the type of data that they require. Later as an application, the unemployment rate in Muğla province is estimated through the synthetic estimation and the results obtained are interpreted.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Local Area Estimates Survey Methods Local Estimators Small Areas
Kaynakça
- Bogue, D. J., 1950. A Technique for Making Extensive Population Estimates. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 45, 149-163.
- Bogue, D. J., Duncan, B. D., 1959. A Composite Method for Estimating Postcensal Population of Small Areas By Age, Sex and Colour, National Office of Vital Statistics, Vital-Statistics-Special Report, 47, No.6.
- Dalenius, T., 1987. Panel Discussion in Small Area Statistics, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
- Ericksen, E. P., 1971. A Method for Combining Sample Survey Data and Symptomatic Indicators to Obtain Estimates for Local Areas, Ph. D. Thesis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
- Ericksen, E. P., 1978. A Regression Method for Estimation Population Changes for Local Areas, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69, 867-875.
- Gonzalez, M. E., 1973. Use and Evaluation of Synthetic Estimates. Proceedings at the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 87, 533-540.
- Gonzalez, M. E., 1979. Case Studies on the Use and Accuracy of Synthetic Estimates: Unemployment and Housing Applications in Synthetic Estimates for Small Areas National Institute on Drug Abuse, Research Monograph 24, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- Gonzalez, M. E., Hoza, C., 1978. Small Area Estimation with Application to Unemployment and Housing Estimates. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 73, 7-15.
- Holt, D., Smith, T. M. F., Tomberlin, T.J., 1979. A Model Based Approach to Estimation for Small Subgroups of a Population. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 405-410.
- Kalton, G., 1987. Panel Discussion in Small Area Statistics. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
- Kish, L., 1987. Statistical Design for Research. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1987.
- Laake, P., 1979. A Prediction Approach to Subdomain Estimation in Finite Populations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 355-358.
- Levy, P.S., 1971. The Use of Mortality Data in Evaluating Synthetic Estimates. 1971 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 328-33.
- NCHS, 1968. Synthetic State Estimates of Disability PHS Publication No. 1759, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- NIDA, 1979. Synthetic Estimates for Small Areas Research Monograph 24, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- Nicholls, A., 1977. A Regression Approach to Small Area Estimation. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, Australia, March Mimeographed.
- Purcell, N. J., Kish, L., 1979. Estimation for Small Domains. Biometrics, 35, June, 365-384.
- Purcell, N. J., Kish, L., 1980. Postcensal Estimates for Local Areas or Domains. International Statistical Review, 48, 3-18.
- Rao, J. N. K., 2003. Small Area Estimation. John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey.
- Rives, N. W., 1976. A Modified Housing Unit Method for Small Area population Estimation. Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 717-720.
- Royall, R. A., 1973. Discussion of Papers by Gonzalez and Ericksen. Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 42-43.
- Särndal, C. E., 1984. Design-Consistent versus Model-Dependent Estimation for Small Domains, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 624-631.
- Särndal, C. E., 1993. Small Area Statistics and Survey Designs, International Scientific Conference. Volume II. Contributed Papers and Panel Discussion. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
- Starsinic, D. E., 1974. Development of Population Estimates for Revenue Sharing Areas, Census Tract Papers. Series GE 40, No.10, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- Swanson, D. A., 2009. The Methods and Materials Used to Generate Two Key Elements of the Housing Unit Method of Population Estimation: Vacancy Rates (VR) and Persons Per Household (PPH). Working Paper 09-03, Blakely Center for Sustainable Suburban Development, University of California Riverside.
- U.S Bureau of The Census, 1947. Population-Special Reports, Series P-47, No. 4, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- U.S. Bureau of The Census, 1969. Estimates of the Population of Counties and Metropolitan Areas, July 1, 1966: A Summary Report, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 427, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- U.S. Bureau of The Census, 1975a. Population Estimates and Projection, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 580, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- U.S. Bureau of The Census, 1975b. The Methods and Materials of Demography, Third Printing, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.
- United Nations, 1950. The Preparation of Sampling Survey Reports, Statistical Papers, Series C, No:1.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | İstatistiksel Analiz |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makaleleri |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 17 Ekim 2011 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2011 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2 |
