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Temporal Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Middle Mediterranean Basin

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 82 - 94, 31.05.2023

Abstract

In this study, Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test was used to observe the temporal variation of precipitation, temperature, and flow data of Manavgat Stream, Köprüçay and Dim Stream sub-basins in the Middle Mediterranean Basin. Also, meteorological drought analysis by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and hydrological drought analysis by using Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were performed for this study region. M-K trend test was re-applied to define the temporal variation of standardized meteorological and hydrological drought values obtained in 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-months periods.When the trend analysis results were examined, there was an increasing trend in all stations for the SPI method in the 12-month period, while a decreasing trend was observed in the Manavgat and Alanya stations in the RDI method. In the SDI method, a decreasing trend was detected in all periods.The temporal relationship of these drought indices was tried to be explained for the processes in which significant changes were observed according to the trend test. Therefore, the relationships between flow data and SPI as well as RDI were examined at different lag times. When the relationship between flow values of Dim and Manavgat Stream and both SPI and RDI values was examined, it was obtained a high correlation for four-month delay.

References

  • McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. 17(22), 179-183.
  • Dai, M., Huang, S., Huang, Q., Leng, G., Guo, Y., Wang, L., Fang, W., Li, P., & Zheng, X. (2020). Assessing agriculturaldrought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics. Agricultural Water Management, 231, 106003.
  • Aktürk, G., Zeybekoğlu, U., & Yıldız, O. (2022). SPI ve SPEI yöntemleri ile kuraklık araştırması: Kırıkkale Örneği. Uluslararası Mühendislik Araştırma ve Geliştirme Dergisi (IJERAD), 14(2), 762-776.
  • Akturk, G., Zeybekoglu, U., & Yildiz, O. (2022). Assessment of meteorological drought analysis in the Kızılırmak River Basin, Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences,15(9), 1-15.
  • Katipoğlu, O. M., Acar, R., & Şengül, S. (2020). Comparison of meteorological indices for drought monitoring and evaluating: a case study from Euphrates basin, Turkey. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(S1), 29-43.
  • Jehanzaib, M., Sattar, M. N., Lee, J. H., & Kim, T. W. (2020). Investigating effect of climate change on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought using multi-model ensemble projections. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 34(1), 7-21.
  • Çavus, Y., & Aksoy, H. (2020). Critical drought severity/intensity-duration-frequency curves based on precipitation deficit. Journal of Hydrology, 584, 124312.
  • Eris, E., Çavus, Y., Aksoy, H., Burgan, H. I., Aksu, H., & Boyacıoglu, H. (2020). Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought over Küçük Menderes River Basin in the Aegean Region of Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142(3), 1515-1530.
  • Cavus, Y., & Aksoy, H. (2019). Spatial drought characterization for Seyhan River basin in the Mediterranean region of Turkey. Water, 11(7), 1331.
  • Aksever, F. (2019). Standartlaştırılmış yağış indeksi (SYİ) yöntemi ile kuraklık analizi ve Kaklık (Honaz-Denizli) ovasındaki yeraltısuyu değişimi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 7(1), 152-160.
  • Gümüş, V., Başak, A., & Oruç, N. (2016). Drought Analysis of Şanlıurfa Station with Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Harran Univercity Journal of Engineering, 1(1), 36-44.
  • Efe, B., & Özgür. E. (2014). Drought analysis of Konya and surroundings by standardized precipitation index (SPI) percent of normal index (PNI). 2nd International Drought and Desertification Symposium, Konya, Turkey. 146-159.
  • Tsakiris, G., & Vangelis, H. J. E. W. (2005). Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. European Water, 9(10), 3-11.
  • Malakiya, A. D., & Suryanarayana, T. M. V. (2016). Assessment of drought using standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI): a case study of Amreli District. International Journal of Science and Research, 5(8), 1995-2002.
  • Kousari, M. R., Dastorani, M. T., Niazi, Y., Soheili, E., Hayatzadeh, M., & Chezgi, J. (2014). Trend detection of drought in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran based on implementation of reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and application of non-parametrical statistical method. Water Resources Management, 28(7), 1857-1872.
  • Tsakiris, G., Pangalou, D., & Vangelis, H. (2007). Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resources Management, 21(5), 821-833.
  • Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1-2), 202-216.
  • Nalbantis, I. (2008). Evaluation of a hydrological drought index. European water, 23(24), 67-77.
  • Malik, A., Kumar, A., Salih, S. Q., & Yaseen, Z. M. (2021). Hydrological drought investigation using streamflow drought index. In Intelligent Data Analytics for Decision-Support Systems in Hazard Mitigation. 63-88.
  • Gümüş, V. (2017). Akım kuraklık indeksi ile Asi havzasının hidrolojik kuraklık analizi. Gazi University Journal of Science Part C: Design and Technology, 5(1), 65-73.
  • Tabari, H., Nikbakht, J., & Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. (2013). Hydrological drought assessment in Northwestern Iran based on streamflow drought index (SDI). Water resources management, 27(1), 137-151.
  • Yıldız, M. B., Nacar, S., & Şan, M. (2022). Assessment of regional drought trends by using improved visualization version of Innovative Trend Analysis and Mann Kendall test. 14th International Conference on Hydroscience& Engineering Izmi̇r, Turkey. 503-513.
  • Malik, A., Kumar, A., Pham, Q. B., Zhu, S., Linh, N. T. T., & Tri, D. Q. (2020). Identification of EDI trend using Mann-Kendall and Şen-innovative trend methods (Uttarakhand, India). Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13(18), 1-15.
  • Kisi, O., & Ay, M. (2014). Comparison of Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 513, 362-375.
  • Şen, Z. (2017). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and applied climatology, 127(3), 939-947.
  • Büyükyıldız, M., & Berktay, A. (2004). Parametrik olmayan testler kullanılarak Sakarya havzası yağışlarının trend analizi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Mühendislik, Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 19(2), 23-38.
  • Yue, S., & Wang, C. Y. (2002). Regional streamflow trend detection with consideration of both temporal and spatial correlation. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 22(8), 933-946.
  • Dinç, N., Aydınșakir, K., Ișık, M., & Büyüktaș, D. (2016). Drought analysis of Antalya province by standardized precipitation index (SPI). Derim, 33(2), 279-298.
  • Doğaner, S. (2016) Ovalar, Akdeniz Bölgesi Coğrafyası, academia.edu. Erişim tarihi: 27 Mayıs 2016.
  • DanandehMehr, A., Sorman, A. U., Kahya, E., & Hesami Afshar, M. (2020). Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(2), 254-268.
  • Bhunia, P., Das, P., & Maiti, R. (2020). Meteorological drought study through SPI in three drought prone districts of West Bengal, India. Earth Systems and Environment, 4(1), 43-55.
  • Özfidaner, M., & Topaloğlu, F. (2020). Standart yağış indeksi yöntemi ile Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nde kuraklık analizi. Toprak Su Dergisi, 9(2), 130-136.
  • Gürler, Ç. (2017) Beyşehir ve Konya-Çumra-Karapınar Alt Havzalarında Standartlaştırılmış İndis Yaklaşımı ile Hidrolojik Kuraklık Değerlendirmesi. Uzmanlık Alan Tezi, Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Tigkas, D., Vangelis, H., & Tsakiris, G. (2013). The RDI as a composite climatic index. Eur Water, 41, 17-22.
  • Thornthwaite, C. W., & Mather, J. R. (1957). Instruction and Tables for Computing Potential Evapotranspiration and for Computing Potential Evapotranspiration and Water Balance. Drexel Institute of Technologi Laboratory of Climatology, 10(3).
  • Rusnam, R., & Yanti, N. R. (2021). Potential evapotranspiration uses Thornthwaite method to the water balance in Padang City. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 757(1), 1-6.
  • Malik, A., Kumar, A., & Singh, R. P. (2019). Application of heuristic approaches for prediction of hydrological drought using multi-scalar streamflow drought index. Water Resources Management, 33(11), 3985-4006.
  • Nalbantis, I., & Tsakiris, G. (2009). Assessment of hydrological drought revisited. Water Resources Management, 23(5), 881-897.
  • Jahangir, M. H., & Yarahmadi, Y. (2020). Hydrological drought analyzing and monitoring by using Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)(case study: Lorestan, Iran). Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13(3), 1-12.
  • Adib, A., & Tavancheh, F. (2019). Relationship between hydrologic and metrological droughts using the streamflow drought indices and standardized precipitation indices in the Dez Watershed of Iran. International Journal of Civil Engineering, 17(7), 1171-1181.
  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., & Yuzyk, T. R. (2001). Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998.
  • Yue, S., Pilon, P., & Cavadias, G. (2002). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology, 259(1-4), 254-271.
  • Yu, Y. S., Zou, S., & Whittemore, D. (1993). Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. Journal of Hydrology, 150(1), 61-80.
  • Simsek, O. (2021). Hydrological drought analysis of Mediterranean basins, Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(20), 1-17.
  • Topcu, E., & Seçkin, N. (2022). Drought assessment using the reconnaissance drought index (RDI): A case study of Eastern Mediterranean, Seyhan, Ceyhan, and Asi basins of Turkey. Journal of Engineering Research, 10(2B), 124-141.
  • Yuce, M. I., & Esit, M. (2021). Drought monitoring in Ceyhan basin, Turkey. Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 9(4), 293-314.

Orta Akdeniz Havzası’nda Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklığın Zamansal Değişimi

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 82 - 94, 31.05.2023

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Orta Akdeniz Havzası’nda bulunan Manavgat Nehri, Köprüçay ve Dim Çayı alt havzalarına ait yağış, sıcaklık ve akım verilerinin zamansal değişimini gözlemlemek için Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend testi kullanılmıştır. Aynı zamanda, bu bölge için Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi (SYİ) ve Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi (KKİ) ile meteorolojik kuraklık, Akım Kuraklık İndeksi (AKİ) ile hidrolojik kuraklık analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. 3-, 6-, 9- ve 12- aylık periyotlarda elde edilen standartlaştırılmış meteorolojik ve hidrolojik kuraklık değerlerinin zamansal değişimini tanımlayabilmek için M-K trend testi tekrarlanmıştır. Trend analizi sonuçları incelendiğinde 12 aylık periyotta SYİ yöntemi için tüm istasyonlarda artan trend varken, KKİ yönteminde ise Manavgat ve Alanya istasyonunda azalan trend görülmüştür. AKİ yöteminde tüm periyotlarda azalan trend tespit edilmiştir.Trend testine göre anlamlı değişimlerin gözlendiği süreçler için bu kuraklık indekslerinin birbirleriyle olan zamansal ilişkisi ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Bunun için, akış verileri ile SPI ve ayrıca KKI arasındaki ilişkiler farklı gecikme sürelerinde incelenmiştir. Dim ve Manavgat Çayı için SYİ ve KKİ ile akım değerleri arasındaki ilişki irdelendiğinde 4 ay gecikme ile yüksek korelasyon elde edilmiştir.

References

  • McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. 17(22), 179-183.
  • Dai, M., Huang, S., Huang, Q., Leng, G., Guo, Y., Wang, L., Fang, W., Li, P., & Zheng, X. (2020). Assessing agriculturaldrought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics. Agricultural Water Management, 231, 106003.
  • Aktürk, G., Zeybekoğlu, U., & Yıldız, O. (2022). SPI ve SPEI yöntemleri ile kuraklık araştırması: Kırıkkale Örneği. Uluslararası Mühendislik Araştırma ve Geliştirme Dergisi (IJERAD), 14(2), 762-776.
  • Akturk, G., Zeybekoglu, U., & Yildiz, O. (2022). Assessment of meteorological drought analysis in the Kızılırmak River Basin, Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences,15(9), 1-15.
  • Katipoğlu, O. M., Acar, R., & Şengül, S. (2020). Comparison of meteorological indices for drought monitoring and evaluating: a case study from Euphrates basin, Turkey. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(S1), 29-43.
  • Jehanzaib, M., Sattar, M. N., Lee, J. H., & Kim, T. W. (2020). Investigating effect of climate change on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought using multi-model ensemble projections. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 34(1), 7-21.
  • Çavus, Y., & Aksoy, H. (2020). Critical drought severity/intensity-duration-frequency curves based on precipitation deficit. Journal of Hydrology, 584, 124312.
  • Eris, E., Çavus, Y., Aksoy, H., Burgan, H. I., Aksu, H., & Boyacıoglu, H. (2020). Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought over Küçük Menderes River Basin in the Aegean Region of Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142(3), 1515-1530.
  • Cavus, Y., & Aksoy, H. (2019). Spatial drought characterization for Seyhan River basin in the Mediterranean region of Turkey. Water, 11(7), 1331.
  • Aksever, F. (2019). Standartlaştırılmış yağış indeksi (SYİ) yöntemi ile kuraklık analizi ve Kaklık (Honaz-Denizli) ovasındaki yeraltısuyu değişimi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 7(1), 152-160.
  • Gümüş, V., Başak, A., & Oruç, N. (2016). Drought Analysis of Şanlıurfa Station with Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Harran Univercity Journal of Engineering, 1(1), 36-44.
  • Efe, B., & Özgür. E. (2014). Drought analysis of Konya and surroundings by standardized precipitation index (SPI) percent of normal index (PNI). 2nd International Drought and Desertification Symposium, Konya, Turkey. 146-159.
  • Tsakiris, G., & Vangelis, H. J. E. W. (2005). Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. European Water, 9(10), 3-11.
  • Malakiya, A. D., & Suryanarayana, T. M. V. (2016). Assessment of drought using standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI): a case study of Amreli District. International Journal of Science and Research, 5(8), 1995-2002.
  • Kousari, M. R., Dastorani, M. T., Niazi, Y., Soheili, E., Hayatzadeh, M., & Chezgi, J. (2014). Trend detection of drought in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran based on implementation of reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and application of non-parametrical statistical method. Water Resources Management, 28(7), 1857-1872.
  • Tsakiris, G., Pangalou, D., & Vangelis, H. (2007). Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resources Management, 21(5), 821-833.
  • Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1-2), 202-216.
  • Nalbantis, I. (2008). Evaluation of a hydrological drought index. European water, 23(24), 67-77.
  • Malik, A., Kumar, A., Salih, S. Q., & Yaseen, Z. M. (2021). Hydrological drought investigation using streamflow drought index. In Intelligent Data Analytics for Decision-Support Systems in Hazard Mitigation. 63-88.
  • Gümüş, V. (2017). Akım kuraklık indeksi ile Asi havzasının hidrolojik kuraklık analizi. Gazi University Journal of Science Part C: Design and Technology, 5(1), 65-73.
  • Tabari, H., Nikbakht, J., & Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. (2013). Hydrological drought assessment in Northwestern Iran based on streamflow drought index (SDI). Water resources management, 27(1), 137-151.
  • Yıldız, M. B., Nacar, S., & Şan, M. (2022). Assessment of regional drought trends by using improved visualization version of Innovative Trend Analysis and Mann Kendall test. 14th International Conference on Hydroscience& Engineering Izmi̇r, Turkey. 503-513.
  • Malik, A., Kumar, A., Pham, Q. B., Zhu, S., Linh, N. T. T., & Tri, D. Q. (2020). Identification of EDI trend using Mann-Kendall and Şen-innovative trend methods (Uttarakhand, India). Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13(18), 1-15.
  • Kisi, O., & Ay, M. (2014). Comparison of Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 513, 362-375.
  • Şen, Z. (2017). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and applied climatology, 127(3), 939-947.
  • Büyükyıldız, M., & Berktay, A. (2004). Parametrik olmayan testler kullanılarak Sakarya havzası yağışlarının trend analizi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Mühendislik, Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 19(2), 23-38.
  • Yue, S., & Wang, C. Y. (2002). Regional streamflow trend detection with consideration of both temporal and spatial correlation. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 22(8), 933-946.
  • Dinç, N., Aydınșakir, K., Ișık, M., & Büyüktaș, D. (2016). Drought analysis of Antalya province by standardized precipitation index (SPI). Derim, 33(2), 279-298.
  • Doğaner, S. (2016) Ovalar, Akdeniz Bölgesi Coğrafyası, academia.edu. Erişim tarihi: 27 Mayıs 2016.
  • DanandehMehr, A., Sorman, A. U., Kahya, E., & Hesami Afshar, M. (2020). Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(2), 254-268.
  • Bhunia, P., Das, P., & Maiti, R. (2020). Meteorological drought study through SPI in three drought prone districts of West Bengal, India. Earth Systems and Environment, 4(1), 43-55.
  • Özfidaner, M., & Topaloğlu, F. (2020). Standart yağış indeksi yöntemi ile Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nde kuraklık analizi. Toprak Su Dergisi, 9(2), 130-136.
  • Gürler, Ç. (2017) Beyşehir ve Konya-Çumra-Karapınar Alt Havzalarında Standartlaştırılmış İndis Yaklaşımı ile Hidrolojik Kuraklık Değerlendirmesi. Uzmanlık Alan Tezi, Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Tigkas, D., Vangelis, H., & Tsakiris, G. (2013). The RDI as a composite climatic index. Eur Water, 41, 17-22.
  • Thornthwaite, C. W., & Mather, J. R. (1957). Instruction and Tables for Computing Potential Evapotranspiration and for Computing Potential Evapotranspiration and Water Balance. Drexel Institute of Technologi Laboratory of Climatology, 10(3).
  • Rusnam, R., & Yanti, N. R. (2021). Potential evapotranspiration uses Thornthwaite method to the water balance in Padang City. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 757(1), 1-6.
  • Malik, A., Kumar, A., & Singh, R. P. (2019). Application of heuristic approaches for prediction of hydrological drought using multi-scalar streamflow drought index. Water Resources Management, 33(11), 3985-4006.
  • Nalbantis, I., & Tsakiris, G. (2009). Assessment of hydrological drought revisited. Water Resources Management, 23(5), 881-897.
  • Jahangir, M. H., & Yarahmadi, Y. (2020). Hydrological drought analyzing and monitoring by using Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)(case study: Lorestan, Iran). Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13(3), 1-12.
  • Adib, A., & Tavancheh, F. (2019). Relationship between hydrologic and metrological droughts using the streamflow drought indices and standardized precipitation indices in the Dez Watershed of Iran. International Journal of Civil Engineering, 17(7), 1171-1181.
  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., & Yuzyk, T. R. (2001). Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998.
  • Yue, S., Pilon, P., & Cavadias, G. (2002). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology, 259(1-4), 254-271.
  • Yu, Y. S., Zou, S., & Whittemore, D. (1993). Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. Journal of Hydrology, 150(1), 61-80.
  • Simsek, O. (2021). Hydrological drought analysis of Mediterranean basins, Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(20), 1-17.
  • Topcu, E., & Seçkin, N. (2022). Drought assessment using the reconnaissance drought index (RDI): A case study of Eastern Mediterranean, Seyhan, Ceyhan, and Asi basins of Turkey. Journal of Engineering Research, 10(2B), 124-141.
  • Yuce, M. I., & Esit, M. (2021). Drought monitoring in Ceyhan basin, Turkey. Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 9(4), 293-314.
There are 46 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Dilek Taylan 0000-0003-0734-1900

Tuba Aydın 0000-0002-7404-5020

Tahsin Baykal 0000-0001-6218-0826

Özlem Terzi 0000-0001-6429-5176

Publication Date May 31, 2023
Submission Date July 20, 2022
Acceptance Date November 25, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 10 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Taylan, D., Aydın, T., Baykal, T., Terzi, Ö. (2023). Temporal Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Middle Mediterranean Basin. Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(1), 82-94. https://doi.org/10.35193/bseufbd.1146214